With less than a week before Election Day, Republican Chris Dudley has a slim lead over Democrat John Kitzhaber.
That’s according to a newly released poll in this year's Oregon governor's race.
The lead is within the margin of error for the survey, which was conducted by Davis, Hibbitts and Midghall for OPB, Fox 12, and the Portland Tribune and Community Newspapers.
In a way, this poll is nothing new. It's the latest in a string of surveys that show Kitzhaber and Dudley in a neck and neck race.
Source: Davis, Hibbitts and Midghall for Oregon Public Broadcasting, FOX 12, Portland Tribune and Community Newspapers.
This time, the results break in Dudley's favor: 45 percent to 42 percent. Pollster Tim Hibbitts says that this close to the election, it can only mean one thing.
Tim Hibbits: "We could be looking at a race here that could be literally decided by a few thousand votes."
It's potentially the closest race for Oregon governor in decades.
The state hasn't elected a Republican to its top office since 1982. But with a continued economic downturn, voter mood has turned sour in much of the nation.
This poll shows that Oregon is no different.
Fifty-eight percent of respondents said they think Oregon is on the wrong track. That includes John Najdek of Sherwood. He's a registered Democrat but he says his party has increased the size of state government too much.
John Najdek: "And eventually it just gets to the point where it's so big we're going to explode. We gotta do something. I have to vote against him. I have to vote against somebody."
The poll showed that one-third of Dudley supporters cite "change" as their chief reason to vote Republican.
Almost a third also cited dislike of John Kitzhaber, stemming in part from the Democrat's first two terms in office. But 44 percent of Kitzhaber supporters in the poll listed his experience and track record as their chief reasons for voting for him.
Laura Beaton is a law student at the University of Oregon.
Laura Beaton: "Kitzhaber's done good things for Oregon in the past, so I'm willing to give him another chance. Also, not to be mean, but I do not want Dudley in office in Oregon."
Beaton says she doesn't think the former NBA player is in touch with the needs of working people.
The poll of 500 likely voters was conducted on Sunday and Monday of this week.
Oregon Media Partners Gubernatorial/Senate Race
Gubernatorial/Senate Race Survey; N=500 registered voters (2, 3, 4 of4)
October 2010
Hi, my name is ___ with RDD, an opinion research firm in Oregon. I have some very short questions to ask about important issues in your community. These questions will only take a few minutes. May I speak with _____________________________ (Must speak to name on list)
1. All in all, do you think things in the state are headed in the right direction, or are things pretty much off on the wrong track?
|
Response Category |
N=500 |
|
Right direction |
30% |
|
Wrong track |
58% |
|
(DON’T ASK) Don’t know |
13% |
2. This November there will be an election for Governor of Oregon. The candidates are (Rotate names: John Kitzhaber the Democrat, Chris Dudley the Republican, Greg Kord of the Constitution party, Wes Wagner the Libertarian). As of today, would you vote for (Rotate names in same order as above): John Kitzhaber, Chris Dudley, Greg Kord, or Wes Wagner?
|
Response Category |
N=500 |
|
John Kitzhaber |
42% |
|
Chris Dudley |
45% |
|
Greg Kord |
1% |
|
Wes Wagner |
1% |
|
(DON’T ASK) Don’t know |
12% |
3. (If don’t know to Q2) As of today do you lean more toward John Kitzhaber, Chris Dudley, Greg Kord, or Wes Wagner? (Rotate names the same as in Q2)
|
Response Category |
N=500 |
|
Total Kitzhaber |
43% |
|
Kitzhaber |
42% |
|
Lean Kitzhaber |
1% |
|
Total Dudley |
46% |
|
Dudley |
45% |
|
Lean Dudley |
1% |
|
Don’t know |
10% |
Hard/Soft Support Levels
|
Response Category |
N=500 |
|
Total Kitzhaber |
43% |
|
Hard Kitzhaber |
39% |
|
Soft Kitzhaber |
4% |
|
Total Dudley |
46% |
|
Hard Dudley |
40% |
|
Soft Dudley |
6% |
|
Don’t know |
10% |
4. (Ask if gave candidate name on Q2/3) Are you certain you’ll vote for (Name from Q2/3) or is there a fair chance you could change your mind and vote for another candidate?
|
Response Category |
|
|
Total Kitzhaber |
N=213 |
|
Fairly certain to vote for |
91% |
|
Fair chance might change mind |
8% |
|
Don’t know |
0% |
|
Total Dudley |
N=228 |
|
Fairly certain to vote for |
87% |
|
Fair chance might change mind |
13% |
|
Don’t know |
0% |
5. (If name for Q2/Q3) Why are you voting for (Name from Q2/Q3)? (Open, record up to 3 verbatim responses)
|
Those who would vote for John Kitzhaber |
N=213 |
|
Good track record/has done a good job in the past |
23% |
|
Experience/qualifications |
21% |
|
Democrat/I vote Democrat |
16% |
|
Best candidate |
13% |
|
Like his policies/views are in line with mine |
12% |
|
Like candidate/favorable against other candidates |
8% |
|
Dislike Republicans |
6% |
|
Good for the state/Oregon |
5% |
|
All other responses |
4% or less |
|
Don’t know |
1% |
|
Those who would vote for Chris Dudley |
N=228 |
|
Need change/change is needed |
33% |
|
Dislike John Kitzhaber |
30% |
|
I vote Republican |
12% |
|
Best candidate |
10% |
|
Dislike Democrats |
9% |
|
Like his policies/views are in line with mine |
9% |
|
Has not done a good job |
5% |
|
All other responses |
4% or less |
|
Don’t know |
1% |
6. (Ask all) Thinking about the elections for the Oregon State Legislature, will you be more likely to vote for the Democratic candidate, or the Republican candidate in your district? (ACCEPT VOLUNTEERED ‘NEITHER/OTHER PARTY’ OPTION)
|
Response Category |
N=500 |
|
Democratic candidate |
42% |
|
Republican candidate |
40% |
|
Neither party (Volunteered-DO NOT READ) |
3% |
|
Another party (Volunteered-DO NOT READ) |
2% |
|
(DON’T ASK) Don’t know |
14% |
9. (ASK ALL) What is your age?
|
Response Category |
N=500 |
|
18-34 |
16% |
|
35-54 |
41% |
|
55-64 |
22% |
|
65+ |
20% |
|
(Don’t Read) Refused |
1% |
10. What is the highest level of education that you have completed?
|
Response Category |
N=500 |
|
Less than H.S. |
1% |
|
High School graduate |
15% |
|
Some college, Technical school, or Community college |
28% |
|
College graduate |
33% |
|
Post college or Graduate School |
22% |
|
(Don’t Read) Refused |
1% |
11. Gender (BY OBSERVATION)
|
Response Category |
N=500 |
|
Male |
48% |
|
Female |
52% |
12. Party Registration (RECORD FROM SAMPLE)
|
Response Category |
N=500 |
|
Democratic |
44% |
|
Republican |
35% |
|
Independent/Other party |
20% |
13. County (FROM SAMPLE)
|
Response Category |
N=500 |
|
Tri-County |
43% |
|
Willamette Valley |
27% |
|
Rest of State |
30% |
14. Vote history (RECORD FROM SAMPLE)
|
Response Category |
N=500 |
|
2 of 4 |
24% |
|
3 of 4 |
29% |
|
4 of 4 |
47% |
