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Job Growth Could Return To Pre-Recession Levels In Oregon

OPB | March 12, 2014 3:35 p.m. | Updated: March 13, 2014 10:16 a.m. | Portland

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A new study shows Oregon will add 258,000 jobs over the next decade. And, according to analysts, that brings the state closer to what has been typical job growth prior to the Great Recession.

The Oregon Employment Department analyzed tax records and surveys of employers to estimate how many people are working within different industries and occupations. Researchers then projected ten years out to see where the state is going from 2012 to 2022.

Gail Krumenauer is with the Oregon Employment Department. She says job growth will be broad based and across many industries.

“We’re looking at the largest number of jobs being added in Professional and Business Services, and that’s closely followed by Healthcare,” Krumenauer said.

Job growth by industry over the 10 year period of 2012- 2022. (Click for larger image).

Job growth by industry over the 10 year period of 2012- 2022. (Click for larger image).

Courtesy Oregon Employment Department

 

Krumenauer added that the construction industry is expected to grow the fastest. She says that’s in part because of the late rebound from the recessionary job losses.

The majority of the state’s job growth will be in the Portland area and Central Oregon.

Krumenauer expects all private-sector industry groups to add jobs. That’s more than a quarter of one million new jobs.

“Federal government is the only broad industry that’s expected to decline. And, that’s largely due to expected losses in postal employment,” she said.

Krumenauer says the slowest growing industry includes jobs like magazines, book, and newspaper publishing.  

In addition to the new jobs that are being added from businesses opening or expanding, employers will also need workers for the nearly four hundred thousand jobs that are expected to be vacant because of retirement and other reasons. 

Brenda Turner is a state occupational economist. She says more people will be changing professions, leaving the state, or retiring.

“We have things like an aging population that are definitely creating some job openings because we have people that are leaving occupations and retiring,’ Turner said.

Turner says there will be more job openings because of people leaving an occupation than there are to actual growth.

There will be job openings in almost all occupations.

“Service occupations are expected to grow the most or have the most openings. As well as, Professional and Related, and Office and Administrative Support,” Turner added.

 

Table of occupation growth over the decade from 2012 - 2022. (Click for larger image).

Table of occupation growth over the decade from 2012 - 2022. (Click for larger image).

Courtesy Oregon Employment Department

 

Turner says the Construction and Healthcare industries are also expected to see more job openings as workers vacate their positions.

Researchers estimate that about a third of all job openings will require an education beyond high school.

More than half of all projected job openings will require some sort of education beyond high school to be competitive in the hiring process.

A bachelor’s or advanced degree will be needed for roughly one-fourth of job openings at the competitive level.

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