Business

UO Professor Sees Recession Ending, Slow Recovery Starting

OPB | Dec. 2, 2009 12:17 p.m. | Updated: July 17, 2012 1:09 a.m. | Portland, OR

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By Ryan Knutson

The University of Oregon has just released its Index of Economic Indicators for the month of October. As Ryan Knutson reports, it's the latest sign that the recession is technically over.


The Index of Economic Indicators rose 0.6-percent in October. 

UO professor Tim Duy compiles the monthly index.  He says the numbers suggest the recession has ended, and probably did so officially some time in August.

But Duy cautions that jobs likely won't rebound until the middle of next year, and it could take between four to six years to return to healthy unemployment rates.

Tim Duy: "The economy has fallen a long way from where we were a year and a half or two years ago. And even a little bit of improvement feels like you're in a big hole."

Duy says the economy has rebounded in part because of federal stimulus spending, and because companies have adjusted to the smaller economy.

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