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Last month John Kitzhaber won the governor's election by a one percent margin. But while seven of 36 counties favored him, outside of the Portland-metro area, some counties favored his opponent Chris Dudley by as much as 70%. No Democrat was ousted at the federal level, but Democrats lost supermajority status in the state Senate. And the state House, which was once dominated by Democrats, is now evenly split 30-30.
According to a survey (pdf) that OPB and Fox 12* commissioned, half of Oregonians feel optimistic about the election results, but the other half feels pessimistic. Statistically, the correlating factors show that those feeling optimistic tend to be Democrats residing in urban areas, and those who feel pessimistic tend to be Republicans in rural areas. Of course, there is much more nuance to the survey results, but purely by the numbers, these statistics point to a dividing line between rural and urban Oregon.
The idea of a rural-urban divide is not new — in Oregon and many other states. Across America, people in small towns and big cities often have contrasting ideologies. But the history of Oregon politics shows times when rural Oregon was predominantly democratic and Portland was largely republican. Various factors like the mechanization of agriculture and environmental issues like the spotted owl led to fundamental shifts in political leanings. One way to understand Oregon politics today is to explore Oregon politics in the past.
Does the outcome of last month's election make you feel optimistic or pessimistic about the future of the state? Do you believe urban Oregon unfairly represents the state?
GUESTS:
- Tim Hibbitts: Partner of Davis, Hibbitts and Midghall, Inc.
- Larry Cain: Oregon voter who does not feel optimistic
- Adam White: Oregon voter who feels optimistic
- Bill Lunch : Political science professor at Oregon State University
Tagged as: 2010 · divide · election
Photo credit: blmurch / Creative Commons
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I'm sorry to hear that OPB partnered with FOX to conduct the survey. Fox, as you may know, is owned and controlled by Emperor Palpatine (oops, I mean Rupert Murdoch), who is a HEAVY contributor to the Republican Party (otherwise known as the Party of HELL, NO!).
FOX is hardly impartial.
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I find it rather amusing, and hopeful; Liberal (OPB), Conservative (Fox) doing something jointly.
However there is no conclusion with a 4.9% margin of error.
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neither is OPB >> duh
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Penny, the partnership was actually with Fox 12 — a local cable news network that is owned by the Meredith Corporation, not Murdoch. The partnership is described on Fox 12's site here http://www.kptv.com/yourvote/26002932/detail.html and the poll was actually conducted by the firm Davis, Hibbitts & Midghall. Thanks for keeping us on our toes!
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Thanks for the clarification, Sarah...I appreciate it.
P.S. I remember when KPTV-12 was an independent station. It was one of the Portland-based channels offered on cable down here when my brother and I were kids. We used to watch "Ramblin' Rod" in the afternoons...the show was heavy with Popeye cartoons.
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...where can we read the actual poll results?
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Click on the word "survey" above, and you'll find the link to the PDF. Thanks for asking.
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To quote the pollster >>
"People basically are not really feeling like they're being served by government at almost any level,” Hibbitts says.
Government is in the business justifying their own existence, increasing their power and budgets.
Government is not your friend.
Every government degenerates when trusted to the rulers of the people alone. The people themselves are its only safe depositories.
Thomas Jefferson -
jefferson was thinking of highly intelligent and well educated people running things, not the folks who can barely figure out where lambs come from
you have misquoted and poorly appplied someone else's words
¡¡ what a surprise !!
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>Do you believe urban Oregon unfairly represents the state?
I have never understood this complaint. In elections, PEOPLE vote, not land. Multnomah County has just as many people as the entirety of Eastern Oregon (730,000 or so) and because every person has 1 vote that means that one county has just as much political influence as Eastern Oregon.
If 90% of the people in a state pool together and live in 10% of the area, who could honestly say it would be fair to give the remaining 10% the same voting power just because they occupy 90% of the land? I’ve even heard some conservatives say that only people who own property should be able to vote. That’s ridiculous.
I can understand why we have the United States Senate, but just look how unfair it is to give each state 2 Senators regardless of population. California has 37,000,000 million people and 2 senators and Wyoming has about 560,000 people and 2 senators.
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IF U DONT LIKE THE REPRESENTATION IN THE SENATE MOUNT ( AND NOT IN A GAY WAY) A REFERENDUM TO CHANGE THE CONSTITUTION
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Our bi-cameral federal legislature was a compromise between the states who thought that all states should have the same amount of representation, and the states who thought that representation should be based on population. Thus, all 50 states each have 2 Senators (equal representation in the upper house) and a varying number of Representatives based on population, with each state having at least one Representative (proportional representation, based on population, in the lower house).
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Only Vitalpac could think of a way to make proposing a measure to the ballot sound somehow dirty.
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I am an independent and vote Democratic or 3rd party, I am deeply pessimistic about the state of our state and country. After 20 years of voting I have come to the conclusion that our government is irreparably flawed to the point that positive and meaningful change is impossible (gridlock and corruption) and our citizenry is fickle to the point that we are dangerous to ourselves and our country.
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IDIOT WAKE UP>. ITS THE LIBS WHO ARE IN CONTROL
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I'm neither optimistic or pessimistic regarding Oregon's future. Some in Oregon are creative, thriving and doing great things for themselves and others. I salute them.
The challenge for the rest of us -- whether we're urban or rural; conservative through progressive; unedcuated or educated; foolish or wise -- is to change our behavior, outlook and action for the benefit of Oregon and the world.
I don't know whether urban Oregon unfairly represents the state because I've always lived in the urban world. I don't completely understand the challenges or issues that rural Oregonians care about because I have not walked several miles in their shoes.
I fear that rural and urban Oregonians have allowed themselves to be manipulated and angered by forces which seek to further enslave them. Malignant forces pursue agendas that suppress the best interests of the majority.
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I AGREE THE LIBS HAVE ENSLAVED THE DIMWITTED URBAN POPULATION >............... NO OFFENSE
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Seems to me that the tragedy of democracy is that it works. We get just about the government we deserve. When we have an electorate that, by every measurement I've seen, is overwhelmingly under-educated, ignorant of complex issues, dismissive of serious conversation, insistent on having simple answers to complicated questions, we get what we have now....the paralysis of extremes and the despair of the center. Our government is an unhappy reflection of the superficialities of our society.
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product of NEAn so callled critiical thinking
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The impression that I get is that the "poll" was manipulative and engineered to produce a bias toward pessimism.
As a Washington resident (Clark County) I wonder if this TOL intentionally marginalizes its non-OR audeince while you engage in fairly self-indulgent blabber.
Also generally, OF COURSE this is a pessimistic winter. What's the fuss?
No Money = No Fun. The tubes becon us all and we are communally on the edge of economic disaster, brought on largely by the ineptitude and incompetence of our institutions. I think it is definitely not remarkable that people have a dim view of government. We have been sold down the river by our state governments and other structural titans (banks, the church, the media, etc).
Perhaps TOL can launch some alternative views in this regard. THere is an alleged progressive outlook that OPB embraces that is sadly lacking in this morning's show.
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mind ur own bees wax
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Tim has talked about cross-tab results -- such as the differing answers among Repubicans and Democrats. Please make the cross-tabs available, as well as the entire survey if not done already.
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Having had some exposure to Oregon legislators, I have long been unimpressed by their intelligence, their knowledge of the law, and their knowledge of how to innovate new laws. Being an Oregon legislator amounts to being a student body legislator at U of O or OSU. The level of political correctness that exists in the Oregon Legislature is so noisy that it swamps out voices for serious change. A prime example is the lip service paid to gays and lesbians, minorities, and more. What the legislature does not understand at all is that good governance is not about gays in particular, but that gays (like everyone else) should have a good job, health care, and a safe working environment. The Oregon Legislature does not understand that it represents everyone when it comes down to good governance.
Kitzhaber was not a good governor for 8 years so no wonder everyone is depressed. The basketball player guy was not even someone with a good jump shot, much less political skill. In large measure the "depression" about the legislature is really about lousy choices for public office within the state. The proof? There were no good choices during this last election cycle.
Have the good Dr Lunch name (name!) 1) the three top "go to" legislators when it comes to passing laws (good or bad). 2) Name those legislators with indepth knowledge of the state's budget and budget processes. 3) Name those legislators with indepth knowledge of the budgets for K-12 and higher education. Now, how many of those have been effective at running this state?
The legislators I've met over the years would not make good highschool "social studies" teachers, much less have the savviness to govern. Oregon citizens elect people lesser than themselves, which explains much about why the state is a mess and voters are depressed about the future. Most legislators are nothing more than "glad-handers" with little interest in studying how to become socially responsible representatives.
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i think the trend is toward a very poorly informed populace electing a very ignorant sort to office, and no one has any real reason for either optimism or pessimism, other than the shallow kind - and we are all basically rather screwed because of this-
we cannot elect the stupid to represent the stupid and expect very good results -
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Very well put!
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Here is what I feel very optimistic about:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Positive_psychology
I have seen it work in both humans and hunting dogs.
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Isn’t the inherent nature of conservative ideology pessimistic? I am not suggesting this is a good or bad thing. But, any group that favors tradition, is going to tend to be pessimistic about the future because the future is constantly changing. It is essentially the nature of conservatism to be on the defensive in a modern world, because change and progress are always an attack on the ideology. The only things that are not an attack on the ideology are regression and stagnation. I say this not to say something bad about conservatives (although I do detest them), but I propose it to point out that conservatives are doing nothing wrong by their pessimism itself nor should they be ashamed of it. And this poll states little more than the obvious.
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Isn’t the inherent nature of conservative ideology pessimistic?
I would answer No, it is not pessimistic; rather it is (at the center) prudent, just as at the center so to is the nature of the liberal ideology.
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I suspect liberals are optimistic because they rely beliefs and hope not facts and reality. a good example is the recent revelation that Al Gore pushed for ethanol to be a efficient energy source but had no hard proof. He hoped it was, he believed it was, but there were no facts or science to support his hopes. Baseless optimism. And he stood to gain a look of money and political support from corn growers and ethanol producers.
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Good point. Since 2000 we have generally had the popular conservative media kvetching daily on radio and TV about America going to hell in a handbasket. Everything from progressive education to perceived lax religiosity is seen as a new front in the bogus "culture war" and every development not in tune with tradition is decried as another sign of decline.
With this as background, how can conservatives be optimists? For conservative conversationalists, everything is wrong or headed for a tragic commupance unless we "return" to something or other.
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@ cfbednarek -
about A. Gore - hogwash, rumor, supposition and lies, maybe not your own lies, but still lies
...and yet some are optimistic that we will forget the looting of the banks by the bankers and their cronies, and further deregulate them, thus fulfilling that tradition, and making the banker feel very strongly that it is indeed a good tradition to hang on to -
or perhaps one might be pessimistic that the government would be able to step in again and 'save the day', and that if they are going to get any, they better get the move on now, and pillage something, cheat and lie while there is still time
and so forth
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What is astonishing about the election is that the majority of people when polled nationally a couple of weeks after the election didn't even know that the GOP had taken control of the U. S. House of Representatives, which was a really major deal.
I am afraid the majority of voters vote based not even on the information in the voter phamplet, but using such shallow criteria they don't even know which candidate supports their own best interests let alone who actually won. For example I no longer subscribe to The Oregonian, and I paid no attention to which party won which governorships. I tried to find that information a week after the election and it was such old news that I couldn't find it.
Probably no more than one in one hundred people in the bigger towns and cities could accurately answer who all the people they voted for were when all the lesser offices, etc. are included. I can't tell you who won in each race in my city, county, or the state outside of the state level representatives and senator.
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Comments are now closed.
I am not optomistic. The liberals(thanks to their media toadies and entrenched public employee unions) have been in power too long and have built strong webs of corruption. They know they are insulated from exposure to any wrong doing. ABSOLUTE POWER CORRUPTS ABSOLUTELY!!!
Eventually there will be a cost to pay .. perhaps rural Oregon should break away from metro Portland and determine their own fate ; let Portland be Portland and Oregon be Oregon.
JOHN IN GERVAIS