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Oregon turns 150 years old this Saturday. The state has gone through immense changes in the last century and a half, and it's gotten us thinking about what's in store for Oregon in the future. What are your predictions?
What events, inventions, people and ideas will help shape Oregon and the world at large? Where will we live, where will we work, and how will get between the two? How might family structures evolve? What will we eat (and where will it come from)? What technological advances will define the age? It's lots of conjecture, sure, but it's rooted in a sense of where we've come from and where we're headed.
What do you think our state will look like in 50 years? 100? 150? What scares you about the future — and what gives you hope?
GUESTS:
- Patrick Tucker: Senior editor of The Futurist magazine and director of communications for the World Future Society
- Steven Ames: Principal of Steven Ames Planning, a consulting firm specializing in long-range planning
- Ernest Callenbach: Author of Ecotopia and Ecotopia Emerging
UPDATE: We'll spend the end of the show very much in the present. Tonight is the world premiere of an orchestral piece written in honor of Oregon's 150th anniversary. It's also the first commissioned work of 19 year old composer Taylor Brizendine. He'll tell us what inspired him to write Hymn of the Earth — in between homework assignments.
Tagged as: future · oregon at 150
Photo credit: Darkmatter / Flickr / Creative Commons
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Oil will no longer power the economy. There will be little global trade. Airplanes will be a thing of the past.
Warfare will change -- no more warplanes and huge navies.
Oregon will be part of the new nation of Cascadia.
Its economy will be mainly agricultural.
We will have hot dry summers, with less snow runoff to get us through the season. We'll be using composting toilets.
The Southwest will be even hotter, and we will need to deal in a peaceful way with refugees.
We will transport people and freight by rail and boat. We will think about digging a canal from Longview to Puget Sound.
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Yes, it has been suggested in books like Ecotopia in the early 1970's that this area will become the ecological capitol of the continent. I think we have already seen that happen for years in Oregon. It will continue and we will be lookd at as a leader in this region.
Oregon has been a pioneer in setting city and land use planning designs for many years. The largest solar voltaic cell manufacturer in the world has just located from Germany hear recently. One respondent mentions that Oregon will build cars; I would add that those cars will probably be electric or better yet, solar powered. I believe we will always have a plentiful supply of winter runoff water unless our population increases dramatically. Places like southern California will continue a mass migration north in need of water.
What is really unseen and hard to predict is the diverse cultural change that may take place soon with so many moving here from the far reaches of the world.
Mark
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"We will think about digging a canal from Longview to Puget Sound."
Um, don't we already have one? Isn't that what we call the Pacific Ocean?
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Curious how your Futurist Society guest would respond to the idea that predicting the future is quite possibly an exercise in futility. Trends shift, fundamental ideas evolve, and what we think of as "order" enters the constant renewal of "chaos." Thanks for the great show. - Andy, Portland
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Oregon will continue to be one of the leaders in energy production.
The success of the Bonniville Power Commision will become a model other energy systems model. Good and proven payback model and well managed.
The coast will be a huge resource from wave energy.
Passive Solar panels will continue to become modernized and perfected in Oregon.
Alternate fuels from alge will grow well in our climate and will become an export.
Oregon Students will participate in a global education system that will allow students to sign up and learn from the best instructors in the world. Picture fun science classes taught personally by instructors as engaging as Bill Nye the Science Guy. Or African history from a historian in South Africa. Global economics from a credited instructor in the EU.
Oregon will modernize the public transportation system where people and cargo can board their vehicles directly onto a speeding train that never slows down. They will get them from Salem to Seattle non-stop in 1 hour where they will get off with their personal transport device (car) through an automated and safe depot at the entry and exit points. The cargo vehicles will have drivers take them the last mile.
I am not a pot smoker but canibus will be legalized.
Paper, now a novelty world wide, will continue to be one of Oregons exports but now will carry energy credits traded to us from governemts and people around the world. Canabus will be bread for this. Fast growing and with a good convertion rate to paper.
William...
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We will have a local food system that allows the average person to get locally grown food throughout the year, not just in the summer when farmers' markets are open.
This will be accomplished by converting fields of grass seed and christmas trees into food farms, and by renovating our food-processing plants that were closed after we started relying on globally-sourced food.
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Interesting to speculate, but I think we have really no idea... just like folks a hundred and fifty years ago would be entirely confused (and maybe even disappointed) by what has happened and what we (as a state) have become.
If I had to guess, I would say we will be a thriving state post-quake, but that the human cost in the aftermath of the big one would have been unimaginable.
I think the government will be very different, but what it becomes will depend on how we deal with at least a couple of major terrorist attacks (with at least one nuke) doing almost equal destruction in one or more major US metros. We may even have trouble recognizing national and state political structures... states may be joined or further subdivided.
It's all guessing... I wonder what it will actually be like...
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Why do do we think of sci-fi when we think of the 'future'? Those are bold predictions that are VERY likely to be wrong.
I see MANY people simplifying, especially due to our current economy. Personally, I am using less technology and trying to form a more personal, hands-on, do-it-yourself, locally based lifestyle.
I don't make predictions; I can't even imagine what will happen next week. By my HOPE for Oregon in the next 150 years is that we and our children will return to a simpler and more wholesome way of life.
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I feel similarly here. The far-fetched art of "prediciting", while an arguably valuable exercise, just does not resonate well with my intrinsic desire to be realistic. We often automatically default to the sci-fi lense when we hear the word 'future', and as you've already mentioned, it would be advantageous for us to avoid this.
Simplicity, interpersonal relations and local lifestyles are very appealing, and my greatest hope for Oregon would be to seek a balance between this and the technological advances proposed in the program.
The most insightful piece I'll take away from this is that "the future is not something we will land on but rather what we construct it to be."
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“PDX 405 Grand Prix” will celebrate at least 125 years of success
Within the next 25 years Portland will start hosting a Formula One Grand Prix. Its route will mainly focus on the I-405 loop around downtown over Marquam & Freemont bridges. It will also have some loops through the west hills. It’ll be one of the most scenic Grand Prix events paralleling Monte Carlo and bringing Portland an annuity of revenue for as long as people love racing and speed.
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I thought that that was already omni-present and taking place for the past several years. It is just not officially announced as to when to start your engines.
Mark
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On F1 in Portland.
Bernie Ecclestone tends to take too much money out of racing venues, so I think that you will actually lose money on any deal with him.
But still, I'd like to see the race you describe.
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Manufacturing war machines seems to be a driving force for U.S. foreign and economic policies. e.g. The U.S. military is the largest single consumer of petroleum in the world. Can Mr. Callenbach or your other guests describe for us what a post-war/military, post-petroleum economy might look like?
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I would love to be an optimist about the future but the fact is that a lot of the climate change we have initiated is irreversible at this point. I see a huge influx of population into Oregon and northwards as the southern latitudes become increasingly unlivable. For the next few centuries, at least, Oregon is not going to be the idyllic paradise as we have known it.
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Oregon will be 100% terrestrial powered.
There are only 2 forms of energy: 1) Solar (even fossil fuel is trapped Solar, Wind is too) 2) Terrestrial or earth based (nuclear)
OSU will invent and popularize the safe nuclear reactor and Oregon will have 100% of its power from clean, safe, meltdown proof nuclear (terrestrial) energy.
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"OSU will invent and popularize the safe nuclear reactor and Oregon will have 100% of its power from clean, safe, meltdown proof nuclear (terrestrial) energy."
Nuclear pollutes our environment for hundreds of thousands of years with incredibly dangerous radioactive waste. Even fossil fuels aren't that dangerous longterm , so even though we will have nuclear plants we ought to be honest with ourselves about their dangers.
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I definitely agree that Oregon, being a leading "green state" will be 100% dependent on alternative fuel sources by 2050. However, I think that wind power and water turbines will play the largest part in making Oregon independent from oil. Solar power will play a secondary role in creating energy.
I think that with the agricultural resources and the ocean coast, Oregon will continue to lead in alternative fuel sources as well as lead an example of other environmental efforts (i.e. clothing, cars, etc.). I think this liberal green movement will attract more people to Portland causing the city to expand but also be based on an urban lifestyle, distancing itself from suburbia, thus less commuting.
While Portland may grow to be an expansive city, capturing the suburbs of cities like Beaverton, Gresham, Estacada, etc., the rest of Oregon will remain agricultural and continue to be an opportunity for wind energy. At least that is how I would like to imagine Oregon's future.
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Thank you Ernest for talking about input/output economic measurement -> PERMACULTURE!
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I'd like to have us take a new look at the foundations of how people and society are presently developed.
Our current model of parenting is from King Solomon and is some three thousand years old. That old idea of "spare the rod and spoil the child" and the accompanying attitude of "put the fear in the kids early" ought to be outlawed. I believe that it is the cause of many if not most of the psychological and behavioral problems that currently aflict humans. We don't even train hunting dogs that way anymore.
Now we use positive reinforcement of desired behaviors and we do not reinforce undesired behaviors by punishment. The negative behaviors drop off and the positive ones bloom.
That old parenting method of trying tp punish people into being good lead people to develop psychological and mental strategies to lessen and avoid the stresses of living in a regime of fear. Those are the dysfunctional problems that plague people in adult life.
We can make better people than we currently do and in doing it we will recognize and develop their positive human potential. And it is actually an easy thing to do.
And making better people will help in dealing with many of the other problems that we face in our future as a society.
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It's too bad Paul Ehrlich isn't on the show today. Your guests seem to have accepted that population growth is inevitable. The key to a sustainable future is a sustainable population. The easiest way to reduce resource consumption is to have fewer consumers.
We humans have to learn to stop breeding if we want to have a sustainable quality of life rather than the declining one we are beginning to see.
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"We humans have to learn to stop breeding..."
Yeppers!
Technology has only driven us deeper into the dangers of overpopulation instead of solving the problems caused.
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No, the death rate and the birth rate will always keep eachother in check. Sustainability is not a matter of 'breeding', it's a matter of responsible, fair and effective production and distribution of goods. A small population can still have large carbon footprint.
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Historically speaking, it was unfortunate that there was no way to prevent the immigrate population settling in then the ‘triCounty metro area” that became known as “Portland Land” from screwing it up. However, once the whining of the “Portland Land” area was quelled by their succession, many benefits developed.
It is apparent that the principals of progressive stewardship of our environment created a revolutionary understanding of the various ecosystems, which allowed Oregon to clean up the mess of “Portland land” when it was allowed to rejoin Oregon. Indeed Oregon has became the development center for transportation, silicon based machinery, non-emissive energy sources, total life emissions and energy recovery technologies for global manufacturing. These developments occurring only after the effects of “The Ted” had been repealed and reversed starting in about 2010. Interestingly the pronoun Ted becomes a particularly derogatory barb and thus sadly the pronoun falls completely from polite conversation.
The economy of the state evolved rapidly to its current state shortly after it was acknowledged that creating an education system that sustains a rate of completion of 97% and where the 3% have resources to facilitate their ability to function in the Oregon economy. This revolution in education starts in the depths of the “Two-oh-nine Depression” when educators and the administrators were forced to change teaching methods recognizing that the majority of students did not successfully complete higher education. The old paradigm of Higher Education; yet another failed model that was discarded. The average baccalaureate program now takes two years and the graduate on average enters the work ford with no debit, this due largely to the reduction of time to complete the program.
Finally of interest to you here, it was somewhat shocking to the denizens of “Portland Land” when OPB relocated to the City of Bend and by doing so found them selves after a bit of evolution fully funded without pledge drives. OPB goes on to playing a major part in facilitating the public discourse necessary to the society that became the leaders of the United States.
Yes, there was a great revolution that historians now can date it’s beginnings to the “Two-oh-nine Depression”. -
I've seen a lot of dread in the dreams of the future and a few fantastic technologies. I believe the power of the oracle lies in the pragmatist, the moderate and not the pessimist or technophile. So let me try my hand:
Every technology I will mention exists in some form TODAY! No need to wait for the birth of the next big egg head or to go and clone Edison.
The challenges of the future, demand for energy, exploitation and pollution of nature, water supply
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THE PREDICTION:
The energy supply of Oregon at 250 will be cheaper than it is now and nearly limitless. WHAT? Did I just say that? Well it's true.
Three years ago the first paper thin solar technology was created in a lab it is nearing production now. It is a chemical that you paint onto a thin light weight substrate. Further more lasers are a reliable means of transmitting power long distances, in fact the Nazis tried very hard to make lasers because they couldn't build power lines and fight at the same time. the result is SOLAR FARMS IN SPACE! Thousands of satellite launch and unroll like toilet paper to form hundreds of "daisies" and beam their power to a central hub which beams power to earth. Our society has low self-esteem and doesn't believe we can do such things so we laugh at the idea but the technology is all ready here. Some assembly required.
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THE PREDICTION:
As the planet experiences climate change the water supply will fall. By alot. But humans will find the silver lining in the acid rainstorm cloud.
The technology, BOWLS! As old as cupped hands this technology will be result in a pollution free and well quenched world. Humans in many parts of the globe will want to collect rain water to drink. We will raise levies around our cities and miles out on either sides of our highways. Cities will look like bowls, and highways like ice cube trays, these levies will separate us from the worlds rivers creating a self-contained human habitat like a termite mound. Our deadly run-off, oil from highways, fertilizers from lawns, will no longer permeate nature. We will create pipelines and canals to bring water collected in deep reservoirs from other places to be cleaned resulting in potable water and a valuable recyclable sludge. Further more the levies, being quite high, will be perfect places for solar panels and windmills. We'll paint them all pretty like and call them "wind flowers" as we drive by. Dogs may bark.
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THE PREDICTION:
The cost of goods will drop significantly and the rate at which we tear apart our world (AKA "mining") will drop by 90 - 95%
The technology involved with this is less than currently existing; but based on principles 120 years old. Mass spectrometry separates molecules into their constituent atoms. Mass spectrometry is responsible for the dating of fossils and observations of charged particles. It uses electric means to break the bonds between atoms. If it is possible to collect the atoms and scale up the device we can recycle our trash in a way never possible before. We can take our junk and turn it into like-new raw materials. No more landfills. This would be incredibly power hungry and could only come about with a cheap energy supply. I think of this as equal to the invention of agriculture when we stopped relying solely on nature to carry us and started to produce for our selves and we are just so damn close!
Signed:
Sorrytobe Awindbag Neverhappenagain
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The one thing that doesn't change is the human circumstance. We are all vulnerable to weather, starvation, disease, social insignificance, and death.
Socially, we have an interest in survival that includes the ‘tribe’, or the people we know directly.
Materially, we want a bigger than tribal survival unit that can manufacture or procure anything we might need or want.
Beyond that, we have an interest in survival that makes a risk assessment of the worst actors on the global stage.
It is this latter consideration that makes us construct large militarily competitive nations. Less fossil fuels will change the expense but not the motive to survive any potential threat.Tragically, less fossil fuels may put an end to the Hamiltonian hope that if you just make the worlds nations economically interdependent, (globalization), they wont be so likely to go to war with each other.
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Tom D Ford asks if the Pacific Ocean isn't our "canal" to Puget Sound.
Not really. A canal is sheltered from large waves. A barge can be pulled by a team of mules. You can't build a towpath along the coast.
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Growth is fundamental to traditional capitalism, but it is not sustainable. We need to consider a steady-state economy that will encourage improvement, not just expansion.
Out here in Washington County, we have a couple of areas that were brought into the UGB in 2002 but haven't been developed because of infrastructure limitations.
Taxpayers don't want to subsidize the profits of developers, and governments haven't figured out an alternative.
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Comments are now closed.
I was a sixth grader in Bend, Oregon during Oregon's Centennial. I've spent some time thinking about the next 50 years. After that, global uncertainty about capitalism and climate change make it more difficult to project what might happen.
I see a positive future and the following events for Oregon by 2059:
Oregon Builds Two Autobahn Class Super Highways
Oregon Becomes the New Automobile Manufacturing Capital
Oregon Leads the Nation in Attracting Tourists
Oregon Hosts the Olympics
I flesh these ideas out on my website, in my article called Oregon at 200.
www.mickmortlock.homestead.com/media.html