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That's a very nice sign, but does all of the evidence against California consist solely of clever hipster cynicism? I'm in my 3rd year as an Oregonian, and absolutely no one who talks down on Californians seems to be able to back up their claims. It's all rhetoric so far, without substance.

The census summary that you link to above (which you describe as "a whole mess of numbers to basically say that Oregon will be older, more Californian...") doesn't mention California at all.

[EDIT: to clarify, I have no beef with the Think Out Loud post, as it doesn't itself take a position. I'm only questioning this pervasive group-think that I hear everywhere, and that I see reflected in the "Welcome to California" sign. I realize that this is only a small part of the topic at hand, but this post is a good opportunity to raise the question. - bkerney]

The State of Oregon's summary of Oregon Population Survey findings (direct download of DOC file: [url]http://www.oregon.gov/DAS/OPB/docs/PopSurv/OPS06_Press_2-1-07.doc[/url] doesn't mention California at all.

So I downloaded the data behind that survey (ZIP file:[url]http://www.oregon.gov/DAS/OEA/docs/ops/ops2006.zip[/url] the file you want is ops2006_ao_tables_revised.pdf -- ao stands for "All Oregon"). When asked "What state or foreign country were you living in 5 years ago?," 148,328 respondents said California. That's third place -- second goes to North Dakota with 201,304(!), and first by a long shot is of course Oregon. (Disclaimer: I know nothing about the survey or its methodology, maybe someone who does can tell me how I'm grossly misreading the data).

In fact, (caveat: "fact" in this case means about 15 minutes of Googling) I could honestly only find a few articles that touch on the subject, and only one article: [url]http://www.qualityinfo.org/olmisj/ArticleReader?itemid=00005425[/url] that uses actual [i]numbers[/i] to talk about the issue. It suggests that a net 15% of Oregon's population growth ("one-third" inbound from CA, 18% outbound to CA) is Californian in origin. So yes, we will become slightly more Californian --- but considering size and proximity, and the fact that people [i]actually move around the country, both in and out of Oregon[/i], 15% isn't outrageous. I'd think that if the real impact were as great as the impact perceived by clever sign makers, there would be more articles citing facts instead of feelings.

There are of course articles rhetorically suggesting without citation what that sign (rhetorically, without citation) suggests -- that Californians are taking over the Oregon way of life. MSNBC's "Got Problems? Blame Californians" [url]http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/17791351/[/url] is an overview of emotion-based reasons, devoid of fact, to hate Californians. (Actually, when asked "How exactly is Oregon becoming like California?" in the thread on Flickr following the "Welcome to California" photo above, the photographer pointed to this article.)

Now, I'm not beyond convincing. I'm not even suggesting that this common gripe is wrong. I am not saying that Oregon is absolutely NOT being destroyed by us ex-Californians with our fancy Hollywood hairdos and movie star governor. I'm really not even taking a position at all. And I definitely won't stubbornly defend California's honor in the face of factual evidence. I freaking love this state and was more than happy to turn over my California ID to the Oregon DMV. I just want to know the facts that back up these claims -- not hot air or clever, cynical signs.

Any insights?

posted 5 years, 5 months ago
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