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These data are not new.  When using the method of comparing the number of 19 yr olds and the number of "normal" diplomas, the graduation rate in the US peaked in the mid 1970s at around 72% and has been more or less flat since then.

These new "disturbing" numbers surface from time to time when the edcational establisment's always better and better numbers (the fox guarding the hen house) are pushed aside and simple demograghics are used.

Sometime in the next decade or so there will be no majority ethnic population in US high schools. Given that historically, black and hispanic students have lower graduation rates, in the absence of some miracle, HS graduation rates will continue to decline as the ethnic mix shifts.

posted 2 years ago
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