Oregon remains on track to gain a sixth congressional district in 2020, according to an analysis of new data released by the U.S. Census Bureau on Tuesday.
“If we take those estimates and project them to 2020, we can then see what things might look like in four years,” said Kimball Brace, president of political consulting firm Election Data Services.
“At that point in time, Oregon is still secure in gaining its additional seat.”
Congressional districts are based on the U.S. Census, which is taken every decade. The next census will be done in 2020.
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Data released Tuesday shows the seven states that saw the largest percentage growth from 2015 to 2016 are in the West and include Oregon and Washington.
Utah is the fastest growing state in the country, the census data shows. Its population grew by 2 percent, rising to more than 3 million people.
In 2016, Washington's population grew to 7.28 million, an increase of more than 127,000 people from 2015. Oregon's population in 2016 was more than 4 million, an increase of 68,000 people from 2015 to 2016.
Throughout much of the West, and especially true in Oregon, part of what’s fueling growth is strong economies.
“Oregon’s a great place to work, raise a family and retire,” said Chuck Sheketoff, executive director of the Oregon Center for Public Policy.
“Oregon’s been a high migration state for a number of years because, for a good number of years, our economy does much better than the national economy.”
Also driving the growth is an old American ideal. People have long believed they can have a fresh start by heading west, said Patty Limerick, who heads the Center of the American West at the University of Colorado.
“There’s things from the past that are still at work; the idea of the West as a better place, a place where you can be closer to nature, you can be happier,” she said.
Limerick also said there’s an increase in recreation and an appreciation for landscapes that were once thought to be wastelands.
“The notion of deserts being a pleasant place to be, that’s a pretty recent development in American attitudes,” she said.
If population trends continue, the West and South will see an increase in political clout in Washington D.C.
Brace said in addition to Oregon, Colorado and Arizona also appear poised to gain congressional seats. At this point, he said, California does not. Brace said Texas is on track to gain three congressional districts and Florida, two.