Here’s where things stand in remaining House and Senate races

By Domenico Montanaro (NPR)
Nov. 11, 2022 4:55 p.m.
Republicans are still on a path to win control of the House, but by smaller margins than they were hoping. Democrats have a longshot chance of retaining control, but they would need some races where Republicans are leading to shift in their favor for that to happen.

Republicans are still on a path to win control of the House, but by smaller margins than they were hoping. Democrats have a longshot chance of retaining control, but they would need some races where Republicans are leading to shift in their favor for that to happen.

Jerry Fallstrom/Orlando Sentinel/Tribune News Service via Getty Images

Control of the House and Senate is still not yet known. Either party needs to win two of three of the remaining competitive seats to win control of the Senate. And it could all come down to a Georgia runoff next month.

THANKS TO OUR SPONSOR:

Republicans are still on a path to win control of the House, but by smaller margins than they were hoping. Democrats have a longshot chance of retaining control, but they would need some races where Republicans are leading to shift in their favor for that to happen.

Here's where things stand, by the numbers (as of Friday, 11:30 a.m. ET):

The Senate: Republicans 49, Democrats 46, Independents 2, Uncalled 3

Democrats are +1 with their flip of the Pennsylvania Senate race. That means Republicans need to hold on in Nevada, where they are leading, and flip either Arizona, which has not yet been called, or Georgia next month.

To hold the Senate, Democrats would need to hold on in Arizona, where they are leading, and either make up ground in Nevada, which is possible, or win next month's Georgia runoff.

What’s left

Georgia: Incumbent Raphael Warnock (D) and Republican challenger Herschel Walker (R) are headed to a Dec. 6 runoff because neither surpassed 50% on the ballot. Warnock missed the threshold by just under 23,000 votes.

Arizona: Incumbent Mark Kelly's (D) lead has increased to a margin of just over 115,000. He's currently ahead of challenger Blake Masters (R), 52% to 46% with 82% of the vote in. Counting is ongoing and might not be finalized until early next week, according to Bill Gates, a Republican, who is chairman of the Maricopa Board of Supervisors. But that doesn't mean the race couldn't be called earlier, as more vote rolls in.

Masters is going to need a significant share, perhaps well north of 60%, of the remaining vote in the state, to pull it off. But there are still hundreds of thousands of votes still uncounted statewide at this point — and that includes lots of mail ballots dropped off at polling centers on Election Day. Republicans have been saying they are far more likely to vote in person on Election Day, so the margin could narrow. More vote counts are expected around 9 p.m. ET.

THANKS TO OUR SPONSOR:

Nevada: Adam Laxalt (R) leads incumbent Catherine Cortez Masto (D) by only 1 percentage point, or about 9,000 votes, with 90% of the vote in. Laxalt's lead has tightened since Tuesday night, though he gained a bit early Friday, but expect lots of changes, as final votes start to be counted. We may not know the final result for days. Nevada is accepting mail-in votes postmarked by Election Day and received up to Saturday at 5 p.m. local time — and voters also have a couple of days to "cure" ballots, if needed. State law allows, for example, if a mail ballot is opened and someone's signature isn't there or doesn't appear to match, that voter would be contacted to correct it.

Alaska: This has been added to the Republican total even though the race is not settled yet, because both leading candidates are Republicans, so this will stay in GOP hands. The question is at this point: which Republican. Incumbent Lisa Murkowski (R) trails Kelly Tshibaka (R) by less than 2 percentage points, or just under 3,000 votes, with 80% in. If neither candidate gets above 50%, this goes to a ranked-choice re-tabulation Nov. 23. Murkowski would likely be favored to win that.

The House: Republicans 211, Democrats 192, Uncalled 32

For control of the House, either party needs to reach 218 seats. Republicans need a net of 5 seats to take control. They are on track to do that, BUT likely only with a 1- to 7-seat majority at this point. We likely won't know the full margin though for days because there are still five million ballots in California alone still to count.

  • Republicans need to win 7 more seats to get there, or 22% of the remaining uncalled seats.
  • Current net pickups: R+8. (They have flipped 14 competitive seats to Democrats' 6, according to the Associated Press.)
  • Where they're winning: Republicans currently have flipped (14) or are winning (3) in 17 seats. Democrats have flipped (6) or are winning (3) in 10 seats — for R+8.
  • Estimated Republican pick up: 6 to 12 seats. That would give Republicans just a 1- to 7-seat majority.
  • What's left: Of the 32 uncalled races, Democrats are expected to win most of them. But there are 15 competitive races we are monitoring where the party that holds the seat is currently leading. Half of those are within 2 points, so things could change. If they do, we will update the estimate.
  • Notable: One of those races with a razor-thin margin is Rep. Lauren Boebert's seat. She had been trailing, but is now up by 1,100 votes, and the race appears to be trending in her direction.
  • NOTE: Please keep in mind that these numbers are fluid and will change as votes continue to roll in. See the latest results here.

    Copyright 2022 NPR. To see more, visit https://www.npr.org.

    THANKS TO OUR SPONSOR:

    THANKS TO OUR SPONSOR: