Portland mayoral candidate Ted Wheeler. He is currently serving as the Oregon state treasurer. 

Portland mayoral candidate Ted Wheeler. He is currently serving as the Oregon state treasurer. 

John Rosman/OPB

The big question in the race for Portland mayor is not whether State Treasurer Ted Wheeler will win big, but rather will his win be big enough to avoid a runoff.

A new poll conducted for OPB by DHM Research shows Wheeler with a commanding lead. According to the survey, Wheeler has the votes of 33 percent of respondents. The next-closest candidate was Multnomah County Commissioner Jules Bailey, with 9 percent. None of the other 13 candidates polled at more than 4 percent.

DHM polled 402 likely Portlanders voters from May 6 through May 9. The margin of error is 4.9 percent. 

Portland Mayor Race Poll

DHM conducted a poll of Portland voters for OPB. In the poll, voters were asked which of the fifteen candidates for mayor they would vote for.

Data by DHM Research. Graphic by Jason Bernert/OPB

Wheeler must win more than 50 percent of the vote next week to avoid a November runoff against the second-place finisher. The survey shows that many Portlanders have yet to make up their minds — but that Wheeler, the best-funded candidate in the race by far, may have the momentum he needs.

Thirty-nine percent of those polled were undecided. If those votes are distributed proportionally, researchers determined, Wheeler would capture 59 percent of the poll’s likely voters. 

In the race for Portland City Council, the poll shows City Commissioner Steve Novick with 24 percent of the vote among respondents, far ahead of the second-place challengers, architect Stuart Emmons and real estate businessman Fred Stewart, who were roughly tied at 4 percent. Half of those surveyed were undecided, though.

Portland City Commissioner Race Poll

Steve Novick polls 20 points higher than the rest of the nine candidates on the ballot for City Commissioner.

Data by DHM Research. Graphic by Jason Bernert/OPB

Read the full poll results of the Democratic, Republican and General Election.

Editor’s Note: This story has been corrected from an earlier version. If the undecideds break proportionally, Ted Wheeler would have the support of 59 percent of likely voters.  The audio version still includes the error.