New poll shows Christine Drazan with narrow lead in Oregon governor’s race

Oregon’s race for governor remains extremely tight, according to the second poll to emerge in the contest to date.

With six weeks until Election Day, a new survey shows Republican state Sen. Christine Drazan edging out Democratic Gov. Tina Kotek by 2%, within the poll’s 4% margin of error.

The poll of 600 likely voters was conducted from Sept. 3-9 by DHM Research. It was funded by Grow Oregon, an advocacy nonprofit backed by business groups that are friendly to Drazan.

When asked who they were most likely to vote for, 43% of respondents picked Drazan, 41% picked Kotek, and 3% picked Pacific Green Party candidate Brett Smith, the lone minor-party candidate in this year’s race.

The remaining 13% were still undecided. After pollsters pressed those voters which way they were leaning, Drazan came away with a total of 45% support, Kotek received 43% and Smith got 4%, while 8% remained uncertain.

The poll was first reported by the Oregon Journalism Project.

“Christine is earning the trust of Oregonians because she’s giving them a reason to believe Oregon can do better, not just blaming someone else,” Trey Rosser, a campaign strategist for Drazan, said in a release. “This poll confirms what we already see on the ground: Oregonians are ready for change, and they see Christine as the leader who can deliver it.”

Kotek’s campaign, meanwhile, pointed out that many voters haven’t decided who to vote for yet. Both the 2022 and 2018 Oregon governor’s races appeared to be close in the weeks leading up to Election Day, but wound up resulting in comfortable Democratic victories.

“There are still a lot of voters who are undecided in this race, but the choice couldn’t be any clearer: Christine Drazan is ready to open the door to Trump’s agenda and Governor Kotek is fighting every day to protect Oregonians from federal overreach and harm,” said Federico Araujo, communications director for Kotek’s campaign.

The new poll is just the second to emerge in this year’s race. Polling released by Drazan’s campaign earlier this year showed the Republican candidate with a 4% lead over Kotek in late June. Kotek’s campaign has not released polling of its own.

The statewide survey also continues a string of bad news about voters’ dissatisfaction with the current state of affairs. It shows 59% of respondents disapprove of Kotek’s job performance, with just 37% approving. And it suggests 58% are unhappy with the direction of the state.

Those low approval ratings are one reason why political handicappers are taking another look at Kotek’s re-election bid.

“We have to acknowledge the competitiveness of this current contest, which is no longer on the periphery of the map,” the nonpartisan Cook Political Report wrote in a Sept. 10 analysis, in which it changed its rating of the race from “likely Democrat” to “lean Democrat.”

“The bar will be high for Drazan to sustain momentum in this political climate and separate herself from the national party if she wants a chance at an upset.”

Pollsters also asked voters what issues are motivating them in the current election. Affordability and schools received the largest response, with 87% and 85% respectively saying they would factor them into how they vote. Housing affordability and taxes also saw broad majorities voicing concern, while data centers — a lighting rod in the current political environment — rated as an important concern for 50% of respondents.