OPB’s First Look: Poll shows governor’s race virtually deadlocked

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Good morning, Northwest.

A new poll commissioned by OPB shows state Sen. Christine Drazan and Gov. Tina Kotek locked in a tight race for the Oregon governorship.

OPB politics reporter Dirk VanderHart unpacks the survey results to examine the issues driving likely voters to their preferred candidates. The analysis starts today’s newsletter.

Also this morning, OPB’s “Oregon Experience” unearths the long history of women’s sports in Portland.

Here’s your First Look at Wednesday’s news.

— Bradley W. Parks

Top story

OPB poll shows Oregon governor’s race virtually deadlocked

Worries about rising costs, high taxes, entrenched homelessness and poor leadership are major factors for Oregonians — and helping drive a neck-and-neck governor’s race this year that shows no sign of breaking decisively for either candidate.

That’s the takeaway from a major new poll commissioned by OPB this month. The survey of 915 likely voters is the largest sampling to date of political opinions in the Beaver State this election year and will be the subject of future stories on voter sentiment in Oregon and Southwest Washington.

When asked initially who they were most likely to vote for, 46% of voters chose Drazan and 44% named Kotek. An additional 3% picked Brett Smith, the lone third party candidate in the race, and 8% were undecided. Results changed somewhat when pollsters pressed undecided voters on which candidate they were leaning toward.

The result is the latest sign that Democrats are once again struggling to sell a record of accomplishment to a skeptical public — a theme that has played out in each of the last three races for governor. (Dirk VanderHart)

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3 things to know

1. Across Oregon, law enforcement approved 77% of U visa certification requests they received last year. But in the state’s most diverse county, three of the largest jurisdictions are denying these requests at a rate significantly higher than the statewide average. (Holly Bartholomew)
2. Officials have identified the man shot and killed by police last week as 39-year-old Eddie Brandon Todd Campbell of Portland. (Joni Auden Land)
3. The Federal Emergency Management Agency has released more than $14 million in funding for major renovations to Astoria’s largest hospital, Oregon lawmakers announced in a press release Monday. (Riley Martinez)

Northwest headlines

• Did the craving for mammoth kabobs drive early American migration? (Jes Burns)

• Data centers proposed on federal land in Eastern Oregon, Western states (Alex Baumhardt, Oregon Capital Chronicle)

• Immigration watchdog says 21 detained during raids of Southern Oregon cannabis farms (JPR)

• Milwaukie police shooting that disabled man leads to $18 million settlement, ongoing lawsuit (Troy Brynelson)

Listen in on OPB’s daily conversation

“Think Out Loud” airs at noon and 8 p.m. weekdays on OPB Radio, opb.org and the OPB News app. Today’s planned topics (subject to change):

• Sports Card Ink in Sisters showcases baseball’s golden age, one vintage card at a time

• Service provider’s departure raises questions for unhoused residents in Grants Pass

• Texas company makes geothermal investments in Central Oregon

One more look

How did Portland become the global epicenter of women’s sports?

Portland is the global epicenter of women’s sports.

You might have heard people say this in the lead-up to the return of the Fire, Portland’s WNBA team. And the history here is surprisingly deep — even for die-hard fans.

OPB producer Emily Hamilton grew up just outside of Portland playing all kinds of sports: soccer, basketball, track and cross country. In sixth grade, she dressed up as an Olympian for Halloween. Her parents and grandparents are coaches and athletes — playing sports has always been an integral part of her identity. It helped Hamilton, a shy kid, build confidence and resilience as well as find community.

Hamilton thought she already had a deep knowledge of this city’s women’s sports history. It was so exciting to learn how deep the story really goes, beyond anything she could have imagined. (Emily Hamilton)

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