Oregon’s COVID-19 hospitalizations could peak this weekend, then rapidly decline

By Rob Manning (OPB) and Amelia Templeton (OPB)
Feb. 5, 2022 12:58 a.m.

The number of people hospitalized for COVID-19 in Oregon will peak this weekend and then decline quickly, returning to pre-omicron levels by the end of March, according to the latest predictions from Oregon Health & Science University.

Hospitals remain under incredible strain. Statewide, almost one in four hospital inpatients has COVID-19. And a record number of patients — 608, or about one in 10 — are ready to leave the hospital but lack access to home health care or a long term care bed.

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Hospitalizations in Oregon never reached the level seen in the East Coast states hit first by the new variant, according to OHSU COVID-19 forecaster Peter Graven. Hospital cases also never approached his initial higher predictions for the state.

One reason, according to Graven: the behavior of Oregonians over the last several weeks.

A patient waits for care in the hallway of the emergency department at Salem Hospital in Salem, Ore., Jan. 27, 2022. The department has had to add beds in the hallways to make room for people seeking treatment, but OHSU forecasts that hospitalizations will soon begin to decline.

A patient waits for care in the hallway of the emergency department at Salem Hospital in Salem, Ore., Jan. 27, 2022. The department has had to add beds in the hallways to make room for people seeking treatment, but OHSU forecasts that hospitalizations will soon begin to decline.

Kristyna Wentz-Graff / OPB

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“The way Oregon handled omicron is almost as good as you’re going to see,” Graven said in a statement released late Thursday describing the latest modeling.

Graven credited a focus on booster shots and ongoing adherence to masking rules as making a difference in omicron’s ultimate effects in Oregon.

Oregon has the eighth highest booster rate of the states.

In the latest official numbers from the Oregon Health Authority, 1,092 people are hospitalized with COVID-19, just short of the peak hospitalization during last year’s delta variant surge, which about 1,200 cases.

In the long term, though, Graven said, people will continue to be hospitalized with COVID-19, particularly as Oregon comes down the other side of the omicron peak. But he sees a trend toward less severe disease with fewer hospitalizations.

“It’s going to be harder and harder for the virus to put somebody in the hospital,” Graven said.

More than 900,000 people have died from COVID-19 in the U.S., according to data from Johns Hopkins University.

In Oregon 6,181 people have died from the virus, according to state figures. The number of COVID-19 deaths per capita in the state is half the national average.

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