FILE - Janelle Bynum pictured in November 2024 after winning her Congressional race for the 5th District. That race was a national talking point that saw House leaders like Speaker Mike Johnson and Leader Hakeem Jeffries visit Oregon.
Anna Lueck
When Oregon’s 5th Congressional District was last up for grabs in 2024, the race was inundated with millions of dollars in campaign cash and TV advertisements from some of the nation’s most politically powerful groups.
Not this year.
As U.S. Rep. Janelle Bynum gears up for reelection, the race has received little attention compared to 2024, when the Happy Valley Democrat unseated Republican Lori Chavez-DeRemer in a race that some believed could tip the balance in Congress.
Large GOP groups have so far appeared reluctant to wade into the race and back any candidate. And local donors have poured a relatively paltry sum toward Republican challengers.
Political observers say this comes as no surprise.
Midterm elections seldom go well for the party that holds power in the White House. With voters souring on issues like the war in Iran and the general cost of living, some political forecasters are expecting a blue wave that could buck the 5th District’s short-lived history as a swing district.
“I haven’t talked to any Republican in Washington who believes that this is going to be a competitive race [in November],” said Erin Covey, an editor with the Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan election analysis site that says the district is likely Democratic.
The district spans a wide swath of Oregon, from Portland to Albany to Bend.
About 30% of district voters are registered as Democrats, 27% are Republicans, and 35% are nonaffiliated, according to the Oregon Secretary of State.
Patti Adair, a Deschutes County commissioner running as a Republican who is widely expected to win her party’s nomination, has reported raising more than $276,000, according to federal figures.
In a statement on Tuesday, she said she was “confident that I will flip this seat and bring common sense back to District 5.”
“Since then, she has built a record as an out-of-touch obstructionist who puts politics before people.” Adair said. “From repeatedly voting to shut down the government to voting against tax relief for working-class Oregonians, Bynum has proven she is too extreme for the 5th Congressional District.”
Jonathan Lockwood, a law school student and former Republican spokesperson in the Oregon Legislature, has not reported any fundraising. He did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
The Cook Political Report isn’t the only site that posits Democrats will retain power in the district. So does Sabato’s Crystal Ball, a nonpartisan political forecasting group the University of Virginia Center for Politics, which names the House district as one of fourteen that is “likely Democratic.”
“As soon as you get caught sleeping, that’s how you lose,” Bynum said in a statement on Tuesday. “My opponents have always spent big to beat me and I’m sure they’ll try to again. No matter what they do, I’ll keep fighting to lower costs and expand opportunity for Oregonians.”
The district used to be considered a tossup, but this year only 16 House races and three Senate races are designated as such.
Jonathan Lockwood, 36, will run against Patti Adair, 74, in the Republican primary on May 19, 2026, in Oregon.
Courtesy of the campaigns for Jonathan Lockwood and Patti Adair via Oregon Capital Chronicle
“From what I understand, it wasn’t like there was an intentional focus on recruitment here which could have been an indication that they plan to take it seriously,” Covey said.
In 2021, Democrats redrew boundaries of the 5th District to include the city of Bend.
The new district map provided Democrats an opportunity to capitalize on Bend’s growth and political change in the long run.
Deschutes County remains one of the fastest growing regions of the state and Bend is increasingly turning more progressive. Republicans accused the majority party of gerrymandering, but a judge dismissed the party’s legal challenge.
The district was held by Kurt Schrader, a bluedog Democrat, for 14 years, until he was unseated in the 2022 primary by Jamie McLeod-Skinner. Chavez-DeRemer — who recently stepped down as U.S. Labor Secretary — defeated McLeod-Skinner the first election of the reconfigured region.
“The shoe’s just on the other foot right now,” said Oregon political pollster John Horvick.
In 2024, Bynum unseated Chavez-DeRemer, flipping the district and earning about 48% of the vote.
Covey noted that Vice President Kamala Harris also won the district by eight points in 2024. In her view, the blue shift could extend beyond this election.
“I think in the long term it will be tough for Republicans,” Covey said.
Others disagree. Chris Shortell, a political science professor at Portland State University, said it’s difficult to make long-term predictions, especially given the district’s young history.
Even if Democrats have a strong electoral performance this year, he added: “Congressional majorities can be fleeting, and voters will turn on them if they don’t perceive that things are changing.”
“I don’t know that it’s a lasting change, unless there is a bigger shift that happens nationally that is more lasting,” said Shortell.
