U.S. Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez, left, and Washington state Sen. Minority Leader John Braun, will face off in November.
Left image: Saj Sundaram/OPB; Right image: Jenny Kane for OPB / OPB
The two candidates vying to represent Washington’s 3rd Congressional District are in a dead heat with less than five weeks to go before a closely watched election that could help determine control of the U.S. House, according to polling conducted by the nonpartisan firm DHM Research and commissioned by OPB.
DHM surveyed 543 likely voters in the district between Sept. 17 and 27.
The results show an incredibly tight race between Democratic incumbent Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez and her Republican challenger, Washington state Sen. John Braun. Razor-thin percentages, which fall within the poll’s 4.2% margin of error, divide the candidates.
Among likely voters, 46% would be more likely to vote for Braun if the election were held today, while 44% would be more likely to vote for Gluesenkamp Perez.
But another 11% of likely voters said they were unsure who they’d vote for. For the most unambiguous picture of where the race stands, said DHM’s John Horvick, pollsters pressed undecided voters on which way they were leaning.
Braun came away with 48% to Gluesenkamp Perez’s 47% — a difference still well within the margin of error. Another 5% of respondents said they were still unsure.
“It’s a closely contested district independent of the candidates or the political environment,” said Horvick, a senior vice president at DHM, which conducted the poll for OPB. But, he added, this year there seem to be two competing pressures on the race.
Braun, who is endorsed by President Donald Trump, is a “more establishment” candidate than Joe Kent, who challenged Gluesenkamp Perez in 2022 and 2024, Horvick said. Kent falsely claimed during his campaigning that Trump won the 2020 election and suggested that the FBI had secretly instigated the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol. Yet at the same time, Horvick said, the national political environment in 2026 more strongly favors Democrats amid steady inflation and rising gas prices.
“I feel like these two forces are bumping up against each other…resulting in what looks like it’ll be a very close election,” he said.
It will also be an important one. The 3rd District is among just 22 House races nationwide currently rated as “toss ups” by the nonpartisan Cook Political Report and is being watched closely by both parties.
In some ways, the district is a microcosm of the country, with rural communities rooted in agriculture, manufacturing and trades colliding with fast-growing cities like Vancouver. The district voted for Trump three times by single-digit margins and elected and re-elected Democrat Gluesenkamp Perez. Democrats and Republicans have each held the district for long stretches at various times since the 1990s. A plurality of likely voters polled, 35%, consider themselves more independent than aligned with the Republican or Democratic parties.
The state of the economy, the cost of living, healthcare and homelessness were the dominant issues on voters’ minds, the poll found, even though the vast majority of voters surveyed said they have little to no confidence Congress will make progress.
Oregon voters had similar sentiments when polled on their attitudes toward the race for governor just across the Columbia River. Responses to an OPB poll there show Democratic Gov. Tina Kotek and Republican state Sen. Christine Drazan virtually deadlocked amid widespread dissatisfaction with the status quo.
In Southwest Washington, Gluesenkamp Perez and Braun are both campaigning on promises to put the needs of local communities ahead of national politics, emphasizing their independence over their parties.
Gluesenkamp Perez has stressed supporting small businesses and trades, protecting healthcare access in rural areas, and ending the Iran war. Braun has mostly focused on lowering taxes, supporting law enforcement and expanding domestic energy production.
“This poll confirms what we already know: it’s a tight race,” the Braun campaign said in a statement to OPB. “We’re doing everything we can to show the voters that John Braun shares their values and will protect their paychecks.”
In response to OPB’s poll, Gluesenkamp Perez’s campaign manager, Tim Gowan, attributed the race’s thin margin to a large increase in spending by Republican and Trump-aligned PACs in recent weeks.
No Going Back PAC Inc., a new super PAC tied to Trump, has so far spent $1.7 million in the race.
“Grassroots-funded candidates like Marie can’t match that kind of spending,” Gowan said in a statement. “We’re seeing the same pattern in battleground districts across the country, where polls are tightening under a wave of nearly unlimited outside money.”
Total outside spending by Democratic groups in the 3rd District race was $354,000 as of Wednesday, according to Federal Election Commission filings.
As part of the poll, DHM asked survey respondents to rate how important the candidates’ positions on several issues will be in influencing their vote.
Among likely voters, 100% said the economy and cost of living were either “very important” or “somewhat important.” Healthcare and homelessness also ranked high on the list, with 89% rating them as “very important” or “somewhat important.” Large majorities also listed K-12 public education, crime and foreign policy as important.
Yet 88% of likely voters said they either had little or no confidence that the nation’s elected representatives would make progress on the issues that matter most to them.
Among likely voters, 62% say the K-12 public schools in their community aren’t doing a good job of preparing students for the real world, 91% say it’s difficult to find an affordable place to live, and 80% think children growing up in Washington state today will be worse off than people are now when they become adults.
