2 new polls suggest Kotek may lead in Oregon governor’s race

Oregon’s race for governor is still extremely tight, but new polling suggests momentum may be in Democrats’ favor.

Two polls released publicly on Thursday show Gov. Tina Kotek with modest leads over state Sen. Christine Drazan.

The first, commissioned by The Oregonian/OregonLive, found Kotek with a 2% lead over her Republican rival. The second, an internal poll released to OPB by Kotek’s campaign, suggests the governor has a 4% advantage.

Kotek’s lead in both polls is within the margin of error, meaning the candidates are statistically tied. But the results mark the first time publicly released polling has found the governor ahead, potentially indicating voters are warming up to her as the race proceeds.

Three earlier polls, including one by OPB, found Drazan with diminishing leads of 4%, 2% and 1% respectively.

“As voters hear more about both candidates and their values, it is clear that they are seeing Christine Drazan as the out-of-touch, MAGA extremist that she is,” Federico Araujo, the Kotek campaign’s communications director, said in a statement. “There’s only one candidate who’s willing to tackle Oregon’s toughest challenges, and voters know that it’s clearly Governor Kotek.”

Trey Rosser, a consultant for Drazan, told OPB Thursday that the race remains deadlocked.

“It took five months, but our opponent finally managed to field a poll showing her ahead,” Rosser wrote in a text message. “Welcome to the race.”

The Oregonian/OregonLive polled 549 likely Oregon voters between Sept. 24 and Oct. 1. The outlet did not post detailed results from the poll Thursday, but reported that 46% of respondents said they favored Kotek, while 44% picked Drazan. Brett Smith, a nominee for the Pacific Green Party, had 3% support, and 7% of respondents were undecided.

The poll was conducted by Lake Oswego-based DHM Research, and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.2%.

Kotek’s internal polling also found her with support from 46% of likely voters, compared to 42% for Drazan. Smith had 6% support, his best showing in any poll released to date, and 6% of voters remained undecided.

Related: OPB poll shows Oregon governor’s race virtually deadlocked

GBAO, the Washington, D.C.-based firm that conducted the poll, concluded in a memo that Kotek is “well-positioned to win reelection in Oregon.”

The poll surveyed 800 likely Oregon voters, and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5%. It was conducted from Oct. 1-4.

Kotek’s campaign did not release detailed results of its polling, so a complete picture was unavailable. But the polling memo touched on a central thesis of the governor’s reelection campaign: that opposition to President Donald Trump would hurt Drazan and propel Democrats to victory. The document said 92% of Democrats who took the poll planned to vote, compared to 87% of Republicans. It also said that Trump’s approval rating in the poll was only 29% in the state. That’s lower than some other previous polling. OPB’s results showed Trump with a 37% favorability rating among likely voters, compared to 38% for Kotek.

Drazan’s campaign this year has looked to capitalize on Kotek’s relative unpopularity among voters, casting her as an unsuccessful governor who has failed to move the needle on housing, student achievement and the economy.

A central question of the Nov. 3 election is whether voters are so upset with Trump’s policies, that they will opt to reelect a Democrat they might disapprove of. In OPB’s poll, more than 20% of those who said they planned to vote for Kotek indicated they had an unfavorable impression of her.

If the new polls do mark a change in direction for the race, it would partly mirror the 2022 gubernatorial election. Kotek and Drazan squared off in that context alongside Betsy Johnson, a former Democratic state senator running as a nonaffiliated candidate.

Polling through much of October 2022 favored Drazan, but flipped in Kotek’s favor near Election Day. The Democrat wound up winning by 3.5%.