U.S. Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez, left, and Washington state Sen. Minority Leader John Braun, will face off in November.
Left image: Jenny Kane/AP; Right image: Jenny Kane for OPB
The results from this week’s primary election for Washington’s 3rd Congressional District are a bit of a Rorschach test.
With a small percentage of votes still to be tallied as of Friday afternoon, U.S. Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez stood at 36.6% and Republican state Sen. John Braun at 39.6%. A third candidate, progressive Democrat Brent Hennrich, had netted 16.8%.
Even in a primary election where the number of Washingtonians casting ballots is significantly lower than what is expected come November, Republicans and Democrats are, at least publicly, seeing what they want to see.
Braun’s campaign manager, Max Lavey, told OPB that Gluesenkamp Perez’s vote share, for an incumbent, “is a sign of deep discontent with her job performance.”
Tim Probst, Chair of the Clark County Democrats, seemed to be looking at an entirely different image.
“ What’s shocking about that race is MAGA John Braun coming in under 40% in a district that is a 54% Trump district,” he said.
Still, there are two clear takeaways from the unofficial primary results. First, a notable number of Democratic voters are unhappy with Gluesenkamp Perez — nearly one in three of them supported her progressive challenger, according to the latest results Friday. Second, if you’re looking at the total number of votes that went to all Republican candidates versus all Democratic candidates, it’s not a heartening sign for Republicans.
Progressive Democrats sent a message
Washington is one of a handful of states with a “top-two” primary system. Instead of having separate primaries for each party, all candidates in a given race appear on the same ballot, and the two candidates who receive the most votes advance to the general election, regardless of party affiliation.
It didn’t come as a surprise to the half dozen election observers OPB interviewed that moderate incumbent Gluesenkamp Perez fended off her progressive challenger. In contrast to recent incumbent primary oustings in places like New York and Denver — safe Democratic House districts — Washington’s 3rd is one of an ever-smaller number of true swing districts. Gluesenkamp Perez is one of just 23 Democrats whose district voted for President Trump in 2024.
What’s notable, to political consultants and advocacy groups OPB spoke with, is the share of votes that went to Hennrich. This was the first year since being elected in 2022 that Gluesenkamp Perez faced a progressive challenger.
“I think that Brent did a little better than I expected,” said Reiny Cohen, interim co-executive director of Fuse Washington, a progressive advocacy organization. “I think it’s a reflection of how mad [Gluesenkamp Perez’s] constituents are at her, and primaries are a great time to send a message to your representative, and I think that they sent a message.”
Much of the criticism Gluesenkamp Perez has received from her Democratic constituents has to do with her consistent support for Israel, for policies that perpetuate the use of fossil fuels, and her 2025 vote in favor of the Save Act, which Democratic leaders say could have disenfranchised millions of voters. She voted against an updated version of that bill — called the SAVE America Act — earlier this year.
Cohen, whose organization recommended progressive voters support Gluesenkamp Perez in the primary despite her record, said the calculus for who to support in a swing district is different from a safe Democratic district.
“ She is taking votes that she believes are reflective of the district as a whole,” Cohen said. “And sometimes those votes are not in line with what we as progressives want to see. But 90% of the time or so, she is voting with Democrats, and she is taking the votes that we do want to see. When your choice is someone who votes with us 0% of the time versus someone who votes with us 90% of the time, I’m always gonna pick the 90%.”
She added that Gluesenkamp Perez has work to do between now and November to earn the support of the roughly 35,000 Democratic voters in her district who chose Hennrich.
In a text to OPB, Hennrich didn’t answer a question of whether he would endorse Gluesenkamp Perez in November, adding “I believe the onus is on MGP to earn every vote. She needs to reach out to those who feel harmed by her voting record and work with them to find a path to earning their support.”
A campaign spokesperson for Gluesenkamp Perez did not directly answer a question asking them to interpret the significance of the share of voters who chose Hennrich.
As part of a statement, the spokesperson said, “Our campaign will carry Marie’s message to the full spectrum of voters in every corner of this district. Fighting corruption in D.C., lowering costs for working families, and supporting small businesses are issues voters of all backgrounds and political persuasions can come together around.”
Republicans could have a math problem
Although Braun appears to have received the most votes of any candidate in the primary, the combined vote share for all Republican candidates stood at about 43% as of Friday afternoon. The combined share for Democratic candidates was 55%.
“That would be obviously more than enough, if MGP matched that, for her to hold this seat,” said Erin Covey, who leads The Cook Political Report’s coverage of the U.S. House. “And it would be a significantly bigger margin than she got in 2024.”
Covey attributes the vote difference between parties, in part, to a motivation gap.
“ Democrats are obviously much more motivated to go out and vote right now than Republicans, and we’re seeing the impact of that in the primary results,” she said.
That’s not the only factor though. In addition to her ability to win over some more independent and Republican-leaning voters, Gluesenkamp Perez may also be benefiting from the district shifting towards Democrats more broadly, said Covey.
Most of that shift is taking place in Vancouver and other parts of Clark County, which has seen a significant population increase in recent years that’s projected to continue.
“ I think it’s gonna be hard for Braun to win this district anyway, even though he has a significantly better shot than Joe Kent,” Covey said, referring to the polarizing Republican who faced Gluesenkamp Perez in the last two elections, “because of the fact that, one, this district is trending Democrats’ way, and also, the political environment is obviously a lot better for Democrats than it was in 2024, when Trump did win this district by about four points.”
The race for the 3rd District is still expected to be one of the most competitive in the country come November and for now, the nonpartisan Cook report lists it as a tossup.
FILE - former U.S. Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler pictured in 2018 on election night. Herrera Beutler held the district for 12 years.
Molly Soloman / OPB
Moderate Republican Jaime Herrera Beutler represented the district for 12 years before Gluesenkamp Perez flipped it. And Braun, the Minority Leader in the Washington State Senate, could benefit from name recognition. He’s also been endorsed by President Donald Trump.
Rebecca Tweed, a conservative political strategist, said the primary results highlight the challenges both candidates face in building a winning coalition.
“Congresswoman Gluesenkamp Perez needs to rebuild enough of her Democratic coalition while maintaining the independent brand that has helped her win crossover voters,” she said in an email. “John Braun, meanwhile, must consolidate Republicans while expanding his coalition to include independents and moderates.”
There may be a silver lining in all this for the 17% of Hennrich voters whose candidate failed to advance to the general — what they choose to do in November could decide one of the most closely-watched House races in the country.
