Oregon is no longer on track to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from its largest emitter — the transportation sector.
State officials say federal funding cuts toward climate action, reversals in supporting the adoption of electric vehicles, and a lack of dedicated state funding have significantly set the state back.
On Friday, the Oregon Climate Action Commission heard updates on the Statewide Transportation Strategy report. The report provides progress on the state’s effort in reducing emissions from the transportation sector, which accounts for 35% of the state’s overall emissions. The main goal is to reduce these emissions by 80% relative to the state’s 1990 levels by 2050.
The report, led by the Oregon Department of Transportation, showed the state was on track and close to meeting that projection in 2022, estimating a 60% reduction by mid-century. Those projections were tied to federal and state efforts that included rebates for electric vehicles as well as strict federal vehicle emission standards.
But that projection drastically dropped last year.
“Unfortunately, we’re no longer on that path,” ODOT’s Climate Impact Analysis Program Lead Tara Weidner said. “Reporting on the 2026 forecast, we’re revealing a significant setback, and if current conditions continue, we will be on track to around only 10% reduction relative to 1990. That’s a big change.”
Federal government actions that rescinded funding toward climate action programs and gutted some emission regulations are among some of the reasons for the setback, according to the report.
But it’s not all related to the federal government’s actions — a lack of sustainable state funding towards emission reduction goals, like increasing public transit options, is also among some of the reasons why Oregon is no longer on track.
“Through 2024, things were really looking quite good,” Weidner said. “Oregon was aligned on an electric future. Federal and state regulations were pushing these automakers to offer attractive EV options, and people in Oregon were buying them with encouragement from purchase incentives and new public EV chargers that were going out. New state policies mandated the clean electricity generation for that electric future.”
Now, Weidner said all those gains are nearly lost, with the exception that Oregon still offers rebates to purchase or lease an electric vehicle to Oregonians that can afford to make the switch.
Related: Oregon to miss its 2035 greenhouse gas reduction benchmark by 2 years, report says
State Rep. Mark Gamba, who is part of the Oregon Climate Action Commission, said he was not surprised to hear the state has fallen behind. He also believes the new estimated projection may be less.
“I feel like it might be a little optimistic given the current status quo,” he said.
Federal and state setbacks
On Day 1 of Donald Trump’s second presidential term, programs aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions from the transportation sector and boosting renewable energy were in peril. Trump signed executive orders cutting billions of dollars in funding for these programs, essentially reversing the Biden administration’s work toward climate action. The administration said the orders would drive down energy costs for consumers.
The cuts reverberated across several federal programs. For example, the administration challenged tail pipe emission standards and a mandate that would require any new car sold starting in 2035 to be a zero-emissions vehicle.
While Oregon worked to position itself as a leader in reducing overall emissions by adopting ambitious standards five years prior, it’s not only fallen behind in the transportation sector. The state is projected to miss its overall emissions reduction 2035 target by two years.
And its transportation department faces steep budget gaps and has yet to figure out ways to balance its budget. That’s hurting the state’s effort in providing alternatives like public transit, Weidner said, which could see severe cuts.
“Currently, we do have a lack of sustainable state funding, especially for transit, that limits our progress on encouraging alternatives to driving,” she said.
Related: Kotek pledges to continue climate change fight as Trump seeks to rescind EPA rules
And while the state’s department of environmental quality offers Oregonians rebates to purchase or lease an electric vehicle through a Vehicle Privilege Tax, the program has become so popular it consistently runs out of funding, leaving out many who may want to make the purchase.
Back on track
There are areas for improvement, according to the state agencies. They identified a short list for “restoring lost ground.”
Some actions that can help get the state back on track are working with other states in fighting to maintain vehicle and fuel standards through lawsuits, providing more funding for rebate programs, and expanding EV public charging systems.
There’s still time to get there by 2050,” Weidner said. “If you look back at the past 15 years, it’s been a slow progress, sort of two steps forward, one step back.”
But as a critical 2030 climate benchmark approaches, Commissioner Nora Apter said these numbers are a “wake-up call.”
“The targets that this analysis are based on are already outdated. They’re not in line with the best available science and what we need to achieve to avoid the most catastrophic climate impacts,” she said. “We’re not off by a few points, we’re off significantly.”
The public can provide feedback to the Oregon Department of Transportation at climate.office@odot.oregon.gov.
